The Characteristics of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Transmission Dynamics in South Korea
Identifieur interne : 001003 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001002; suivant : 001004The Characteristics of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Transmission Dynamics in South Korea
Auteurs : Yunhwan Kim [Corée du Sud] ; Sunmi Lee [Corée du Sud] ; Chaeshin Chu [Corée du Sud] ; Seoyun Choe [Corée du Sud] ; Saeme Hong [Corée du Sud] ; Youngseo Shin [Corée du Sud]Source :
- Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives [ 2210-9099 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
The outbreak of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was one of the major events in South Korea in 2015. In particular, this study pays attention to formulating a mathematical model for MERS transmission dynamics and estimating transmission rates.
Incidence data of MERS-CoV from the government authority was analyzed for the first aim and a mathematical model was built and analyzed for the second aim of the study. A mathematical model for MERS-CoV transmission dynamics is used to estimate the transmission rates in two periods due to the implementation of intensive interventions.
Using the estimates of the transmission rates, the basic reproduction number was estimated in two periods. Due to the superspreader, the basic reproduction number was very large in the first period; however, the basic reproduction number of the second period has reduced significantly after intensive interventions.
It turned out to be the intensive isolation and quarantine interventions that were the most critical factors that prevented the spread of the MERS outbreak. The results are expected to be useful to devise more efficient intervention strategies in the future.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.phrp.2016.01.001
PubMed: 26981343
PubMed Central: 4776270
Affiliations:
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Yunhwan" uniqKey="Kim Y" first="Yunhwan" last="Kim">Yunhwan Kim</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Yongin</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Sunmi" sort="Lee, Sunmi" uniqKey="Lee S" first="Sunmi" last="Lee">Sunmi Lee</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Yongin</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chu, Chaeshin" sort="Chu, Chaeshin" uniqKey="Chu C" first="Chaeshin" last="Chu">Chaeshin Chu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Division of Epidemic Intelligence Service, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Cheongju, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of Epidemic Intelligence Service, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Cheongju</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Cheongju</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Choe, Seoyun" sort="Choe, Seoyun" uniqKey="Choe S" first="Seoyun" last="Choe">Seoyun Choe</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Yongin</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hong, Saeme" sort="Hong, Saeme" uniqKey="Hong S" first="Saeme" last="Hong">Saeme Hong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Yongin</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shin, Youngseo" sort="Shin, Youngseo" uniqKey="Shin Y" first="Youngseo" last="Shin">Youngseo Shin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Yongin</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives</title><idno type="ISSN">2210-9099</idno><idno type="eISSN">2233-6052</idno><imprint><date when="2016">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Objectives</title><p>The outbreak of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was one of the major events in South Korea in 2015. In particular, this study pays attention to formulating a mathematical model for MERS transmission dynamics and estimating transmission rates.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>Incidence data of MERS-CoV from the government authority was analyzed for the first aim and a mathematical model was built and analyzed for the second aim of the study. A mathematical model for MERS-CoV transmission dynamics is used to estimate the transmission rates in two periods due to the implementation of intensive interventions.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Using the estimates of the transmission rates, the basic reproduction number was estimated in two periods. Due to the superspreader, the basic reproduction number was very large in the first period; however, the basic reproduction number of the second period has reduced significantly after intensive interventions.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusion</title><p>It turned out to be the intensive isolation and quarantine interventions that were the most critical factors that prevented the spread of the MERS outbreak. The results are expected to be useful to devise more efficient intervention strategies in the future.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Al Tawfiq, J A" uniqKey="Al Tawfiq J">J.A. Al-Tawfiq</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hinedi, K" uniqKey="Hinedi K">K. Hinedi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ghandour, J" uniqKey="Ghandour J">J. Ghandour</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Arabi, Y M" uniqKey="Arabi Y">Y.M. 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Cho</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Corée du Sud</li></country></list><tree><country name="Corée du Sud"><noRegion><name sortKey="Kim, Yunhwan" sort="Kim, Yunhwan" uniqKey="Kim Y" first="Yunhwan" last="Kim">Yunhwan Kim</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Choe, Seoyun" sort="Choe, Seoyun" uniqKey="Choe S" first="Seoyun" last="Choe">Seoyun Choe</name><name sortKey="Chu, Chaeshin" sort="Chu, Chaeshin" uniqKey="Chu C" first="Chaeshin" last="Chu">Chaeshin Chu</name><name sortKey="Hong, Saeme" sort="Hong, Saeme" uniqKey="Hong S" first="Saeme" last="Hong">Saeme Hong</name><name sortKey="Lee, Sunmi" sort="Lee, Sunmi" uniqKey="Lee S" first="Sunmi" last="Lee">Sunmi Lee</name><name sortKey="Shin, Youngseo" sort="Shin, Youngseo" uniqKey="Shin Y" first="Youngseo" last="Shin">Youngseo Shin</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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